How much is the exchange rate of Euro for RMB: analysis of exchange rate fluctuations and market hot spots
Recently, the Euro-RMB exchange rate has become one of the focuses of market attention. Against the background of increased global economic uncertainty, European Central Bank policy adjustments and the release of China's macroeconomic data, exchange rates have fluctuated significantly. This article will combine the hot topics of the past 10 days to present you with structured data and in-depth analysis.
1. Overview of the current Euro-RMB exchange rate
As of the latest trading day (data source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center), the central parity rate of the euro-renminbi exchange rate is as shown in the following table:
| date | Central parity rate (1 Euro to RMB) | Fluctuation from the previous day |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-XX-XX | 7.8321 | ↑0.3% |
| 2023-XX-XX | 7.8056 | ↓0.2% |
| 2023-XX-XX | 7.7893 | ↓0.1% |
2. Core hot events affecting exchange rates
1.ECB interest rate hike expectations change: The June interest rate meeting released a "dovish" signal, and the market lowered the probability of raising interest rates in September to 35%, putting pressure on the euro.
2.China PMI data exceeds expectations: The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7 in August, and the attractiveness of RMB assets increased, indirectly supporting the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB.
3.Geopolitical risks escalate: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect energy prices, and the Eurozone trade balance worsened to -1.2 billion euros (July data).
3. Comparison of exchange rate forecasts of major financial institutions
| mechanism | 2023 Q4 Forecast | key assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 7.65-7.90 | China's economy recovers moderately |
| Morgan Stanley | 7.70-8.05 | ECB keeps interest rates high |
| UBS | 7.58-7.82 | Fed pauses rate hikes |
4. Practical Guide to Personal Currency Exchange
1.Real-time exchange rate comparison through bank channels(Take the quote on August 30 as an example):
| bank | cash selling price | spot selling price |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of China | 7.8412 | 7.8129 |
| ICBC | 7.8367 | 7.8084 |
| China Merchants Bank | 7.8453 | 7.8170 |
2.Suggestions on when to exchange currency: Technical aspects show that the euro against the yuan is near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands (7.80), and there may be correction pressure in the short term. It is recommended to operate in batches.
5. Focus on the next week
• September 5: Eurozone final August CPI
• September 7: China’s foreign exchange reserves data released
• September 8: Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde
Conclusion: The exchange rate of the euro against the renminbi is affected by multiple factors. Investors are advised to pay attention to cross-verification of policy trends and economic data. The data in this article has been updated to August 30, 2023. Please refer to the real-time exchange rate for specific operations.
check the details
check the details
en
